Press release Dutch Central Planning Bureau, March 26, 2020
The Central Planning Bureau (CPB) outlines the economic impact of the corona virus in 2020 and 2021 in four scenarios. The scenarios use different principles for the duration of the contact restrictions and the depth of the economic impact. A recession will result in all scenarios, with GDP shrinking by 1.2% to 7.7% in 2020. In the lightest scenario, the economy will rebound as early as the third quarter of 2020, in the worst scenario, problems will also arise in the financial sector and the foreign image will deteriorate further. In that scenario, GDP will shrink by 2.7% in 2021. In three of the four scenarios, the downturn is deeper than in the crisis of 2008/2009.
|
Scenarios |
GDP growth |
Unemployment |
EMU-balance |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
(%) |
(% labor force) |
(% GDP) |
||||
|
2020 |
2021 |
2020 |
2021 |
2020 |
2021 |
|
|
I: 3 months limitations |
-1,2 |
3,5 |
4,0 |
4,5 |
-1,3 |
-0,5 |
|
I: 6 months limitations |
-5,0 |
3,8 |
4,2 |
5,3 |
-4,6 |
-2,9 |
|
III: 6 months limitations, pass-through more negative |
-7,7 |
2,0 |
6,3 |
8,4 |
-6,8 |
-5,7 |